I'll be making my initial guesses in the contest thread shortly. This year is extremely difficult. Last year was unsual in that the Best Picture award was a toss up between THREE different nominees. More often than not, there is a clear favorite for Best Picture, and other times there might be two that are close, but last year had three completely viable contenders, and this year seems even less predictable than the last.

"The Lord of the Rings" is the one that will determine the outcome, I think. How people feel about that movie will determine the winner, whether IT wins or not. In its favor, it is a big epic, which Oscars gravitate toward like bees to honey. On the other hand, it is a *fantasy* epic, which is a genre that is not taken seriously. (Though how anybody could take "Gladiator" seriously while not taking "Lord of the Rings" is beyond me. There's more humanity and substance in the latter than the former could ever hold claim to.)

On the one hand, Lord of the Rings is still very popular amongst audiences in various circles. On the other hand, is it the kind of film that speaks to those who will be casting the votes?

If Lord of the Rings takes a back seat, then "A Beautiful Mind" is probably the horse to bet on. But there is considerable controversy over that film -- claims that the story was whitewashed to pander to the Academy. "Moulin Rouge" (my pick for which film *should* get the award) has a chance of pulling through -- it's fairly respected in Hollywood, but its chances are crimped a bit by being a summer release.

I don't think Gosford Park or In the Bedroom have reasonable hopes.

For Best Director, I would predict Ridley Scott, except that his film, Black Hawk Down, was not also nominated for Best Picture. Ron Howard won the Director's Guild award, which is probably a more accurate predictor of the Best Director award than any other single predictor is for *any* Oscar. Robert Altman is the dark horse here. He's a great director, and he's been making great films -- staples of modern cinema -- since the 1970s, but he's been consistency passed over by the Academy. Until now. "Gosford Park" got a slew of nominations, and this may be the year Altman gets his Oscar.

Count Lynch out. Too weird. Jackson? Maybe.

For Best Actor, the only thing that makes me hesitate to name Russell Crowe is that he got an Oscar last year. That didn't stop Tom Hanks from winning for Forrest Gump (and there are older examples of consecutive acting wins as well). The other problem is, I don't know who else would get it. Denzel Washington is the only other conceivable choice I can think of, especially since he lost it to Kevin Spacey in American Beauty a couple years ago, but he plays a badguy, and the Academy much prefers mentally handicapped roles to badguy roles. Still, it IS a close year.

Count Sean Penn and Will Smith out. Tom Wilkinson? I dunno. Doubtful.

For Best Actress, Halle Berry. Rene Zellweger is the dark horse.

I have absolutely nothing interesting to say about the supporting acting categories, so I won't say anything at all.

Screenplay? I think we're looking at Gosford Park vs. Memento for Original Screenplay. For Adapted Screenplay, THIS may be where the controversy over how "A Beautiful Mind" was adapted for film will hurt it. But what would win otherwise? "Screenplay!" isn't the first thing I think of when I think of either "Shrek" or "Lord of the Rings." Deserving or no, I don't think either one will get it. And "Ghost World" and "In the Bedroom" are unknowns to me.

Foreign Language Film: Amelie. This is the surest bet of them all.

Animated Feature Film: Shrek. This is the next surest bet of them all.

Art Direction: Moulin Rouge should win and possibly will; Lord of the Rings is the other contender here.

Cinematography: See "Art Direction" and then throw in "Black Hawk Down" as another strong contender.

Costume Design: Lord of the Rings vs. Gosford Park.

Film Editing: It *should* be a race between Moulin Rouge and Black Hawk Down, but "Memento" might be the knee-jerk choice for those Academy voters who aren't familiar with the editing process.

Makeup: This award goes is given in recognition of the most conspicuous makeup, regardless of which film had the *best* makeup, and that makes picking "Lord of the Rings" easy.

Original Score: There is only so much Enya one can dote upon before it becomes old -- you can't pump it for decades and never tire of it, as one can do with John Williams scores -- but, functionally, it worked extremely well in Lord of the Rings. The aforementioned John Williams is nominated for Harry Potter and A.I., but neither is his most memorable work, and he's competing against himself. A Beautiful Mind is the only other contender that I can see.

Original Song: The worst blockbuster of the summer sometimes inexplicably gets this, so I can't count out "There You'll Be" from Pearl Harbor like I want to. "May It Be," from LotR, is not likely, because it's not very conspicuous. I'm thinking it's finally Randy Newman's year for "If I Didn't Have You" in Monsters, Inc.

Sound: Toughie.

Sound Effects: Pearl Harbor (grumble, grumble) will win it.

Visual Effects: Lord of the Rings. Third surest bet of them all.