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Re: Life ain't fair department.
Posted By: commie_bat, on host 207.35.236.194
Date: Tuesday, July 13, 2004, at 14:23:10
In Reply To: Re: Life ain't fair department. posted by cara on Tuesday, July 13, 2004, at 07:04:57:

> > > Remember, even if the odds are fifty times out of a hundred of getting heads instead of tails, the probability EXISTS that you could get tails 55 times in a row.
> >
> > Sure, it's possible, but if you flipped 55 coins every 5 seconds since the beginning of the universe you would have gotten 55 tails at a time only once.
> >
> > So that's an awful lot of luck.
> >
> > ^v^:)^v^
> > FB
>
> Did you calculate the pee-hat on that? That's p^, probable mean. One of the major ideas they try to teach in statistics is that "chance has no memory." Students memorize formulas and pass tests but never really grok probability.
>
Nothing nearly so complicated. There's a 2^-55 chance of it happening, and there are roughly 2^55 5-second periods in the age of the universe.

If it makes you feel better, consider it an order of magnitude approximation.

^v^:)^v^
FB

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