Message Forum: Re: Life ain't fair department.

Re: Life ain't fair department.

Posted By: cara, on host 198.81.26.72
Date: Tuesday, July 13, 2004, at 07:04:57
In Reply To: Re: Life ain't fair department. posted by commie_bat on Tuesday, July 13, 2004, at 06:33:26:

> > Remember, even if the odds are fifty times out of a hundred of getting heads instead of tails, the probability EXISTS that you could get tails 55 times in a row.
>
> Sure, it's possible, but if you flipped 55 coins every 5 seconds since the beginning of the universe you would have gotten 55 tails at a time only once.
>
> So that's an awful lot of luck.
>
> ^v^:)^v^
> FB

Did you calculate the pee-hat on that? That's p^, probable mean. One of the major ideas they try to teach in statistics is that "chance has no memory." Students memorize formulas and pass tests but never really grok probability.

So, if I got my 55 tails in 1964*, does that mean it was more or less likely to occur again in 1965?

Are my chances greater or lesser if I use a different coin?

If I stand closer to Magnetic North, can I keep going, or do I have to start all over?

What if I flip* lefty? Yeah, thats it! I'll flip lefty in 2005!

*The Flip was a hairstyle popular in 1964. It was "probably" promoted by hairspray manufacturers.

Replies To This Message

Re: Life ain't fair department. - commie_bat - Tue, 7/13/2004, 14:23:10
- "fair" is a cultural artifact - cara - Wed, 7/14/2004, 06:54:01
  - RUN AWAAAAAY! - OneCoolCat - Thu, 7/15/2004, 15:28:05
  - Re: "fair" is a cultural artifact - commie_bat - Wed, 7/14/2004, 12:01:58
- Re: Life ain't fair department. - Howard - Tue, 7/13/2004, 17:42:33
  - Re: Life ain't fair department. - Zarniwoop - Wed, 7/14/2004, 03:54:48
    - Re: Life ain't fair department. - cara - Wed, 7/14/2004, 07:02:31

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Message:	> > > Remember, even if the odds are fifty times out of a hundred of getting heads instead of tails, the probability EXISTS that you could get tails 55 times in a row. > > > > Sure, it's possible, but if you flipped 55 coins every 5 seconds since the beginning of the universe you would have gotten 55 tails at a time only once. > > > > So that's an awful lot of luck. > > > > ^v^:)^v^ > > FB > > Did you calculate the pee-hat on that? That's p^, probable mean. One of the major ideas they try to teach in statistics is that "chance has no memory." Students memorize formulas and pass tests but never really grok probability. > > So, if I got my 55 tails in 1964, does that mean it was more or less likely to occur again in 1965? > > Are my chances greater or lesser if I use a different coin? > > If I stand closer to Magnetic North, can I keep going, or do I have to start all over? > > What if I flip lefty? Yeah, thats it! I'll flip lefty in 2005! > > > *The Flip was a hairstyle popular in 1964. It was "probably" promoted by hairspray manufacturers.
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