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"fair" is a cultural artifact
Posted By: cara, on host 198.81.26.72
Date: Wednesday, July 14, 2004, at 06:54:01
In Reply To: Re: Life ain't fair department. posted by commie_bat on Tuesday, July 13, 2004, at 14:23:10:

> > > > Remember, even if the odds are fifty times out of a hundred of getting heads instead of tails, the probability EXISTS that you could get tails 55 times in a row.
> > >
> > > Sure, it's possible, but if you flipped 55 coins every 5 seconds since the beginning of the universe you would have gotten 55 tails at a time only once.
> > >
> > > So that's an awful lot of luck.
> > >
> > > ^v^:)^v^
> > > FB
> >
> > Did you calculate the pee-hat on that? That's p^, probable mean. One of the major ideas they try to teach in statistics is that "chance has no memory." Students memorize formulas and pass tests but never really grok probability.
> >
> Nothing nearly so complicated. There's a 2^-55 chance of it happening, and there are roughly 2^55 5-second periods in the age of the universe.
>
> If it makes you feel better, consider it an order of magnitude approximation.
>
> ^v^:)^v^
> FB

But the chance still EXISTS! No matter how remote. I LOVE that! That, to me is exiting. As exciting as you can get sitting in a chair, anyway.

True exitement comes from sitting on top of someone who weighs 900 pounds and is afraid of gum wrappers. "Wrigglieeeeees! RUN AWAAAAAY!"

The EXISTENCE of remote probablities is why many people play Lotto. The more remote the probability gets, the more attractive the game. They think they're just playing for a bigger pot. I've seen people buy tickets with $100 bills and not get change.

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