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Update (Re: Holiday/Oscar Movies, 2003)
Posted By: Sam, on host 209.187.117.100
Date: Monday, December 15, 2003, at 12:15:14
In Reply To: Holiday/Oscar Movies, 2003 posted by Sam on Thursday, November 20, 2003, at 17:56:20:

The Academy Awards Predictions Game has begun on RinkWorks. Since the Oscars moved a month earlier, the game must start earlier as well. There is still some time yet before the nominations are announced, but the buzz is in full swing now.

An update:

> Nov 21 - Gothika

Saw it. Liked it. Didn't love it. Halle Berry is great in this territory, and much of the reason I liked the film was because of her. I realized this only in retrospect, when I thought back through the film and realized how much she carried me through the rough spots. It takes a wrong tonal turn toward the end, but in general this is a fun but forgettable genre film.

> Nov 26 - The Missing

Oscar hopes, except maybe for acting, sort of took a dive after the film's release. Perhaps it was hyped too much beforehand, but people turned out not to find it the genre-transcending experience they were expecting it to be. I'm still interested in it and suspect I will like it. None of the press about it, good or bad, plays to me.

> Nov 26 - Timeline
>
> Could be good, could be mediocre, but it's sure to be interesting.

Ok, so maybe not. Haven't seen it yet, but the reviews of critics and audiences couldn't be less interested.

Regarding why the medieval period in history was chosen as where the group of scientists travel to, apparently the book is more solid than the movie. To quote the current Roger Ebert's Movie Answer Man column, which in turn is quoting a letter from Ken Gruberman of Chatsworth, California, "In 'Timeline' (the book), Crichton's central reason for going back to France in the 14th century is his belief this is where the Industrial Revolution really started, not in the 19th century. As I expected, however, none of the science, history, medieval sociology, archeology or much else of interest in the book made it into the movie."

> Nov 26 - Bad Santa

The reviews have opened me up to the possibility that this is actually a more intelligent movie than it seems. I remain disinterested.

> Dec 1 - Forbidden Warrior

This movie's release was moved to February, a sure sign of the studio's lack of faith in the film. It will surely suck rocks, becoming next year's Kangaroo Jack. No movie with either "Forbidden" or "Warrior" in the title has ever been any good, which surely bodes a double helping of ill for this turkey bomb.

> Dec 5 - The Last Samurai

Saw it last weekend. I expected to like it, but not as much as I did. It's spectacular. The battle scenes are breathtaking, but the heart of the film is not in action at all but its characters and in particular the relationship of the two main characters. It's simply wonderful.

The one reservation I do have is that the movie never lets the audience discern for itself about the politics of the story. It makes a black-and-white assumption about who the goodguys and badguys are and, worse, assumes the audience will come to the same conclusion, and so it feels free to portray the characters as unambiguous heroes and villains. I have no reservations about which *characters* in the movie are heroes and which are villains, but the movie makes only sketchy hot-button arguments about the rightness or wrongness of the causes the characters fight for. Ultimately, though, I can forgive this, because, as I say, the movie is about the characters, not the epic struggles around them.


> Dec 12 - Stuck On You
>
> Dec 12 - Something's Gotta Give

Both of these had dubious debuts last weekend. Something's Gotta Give has some holding potential, but Stuck On You looks like one that's just going to slip away. David Poland's theory is an overcrowded marketplace, which I can certainly buy. There's too much stuff out there.

> Dec 17 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

This is currently the favorite in the Oscar race, with the exception of acting categories which many feel are unjustly neglected. There may be some acting nominations yet, but it's looking like it's got a lock on Best Picture. What it needs to do at this point is sustain its momentum long enough to keep it ahead of Mystic River and Cold Mountain. The former looks to be more of a threat than the latter. Speaking of which....

> Dec 25 - Cold Mountain

Anticipation for Cold Mountain was high, and some folks are calling Renee Zellweger a lock for Supporting Actress. It's getting a warm receipt from early audiences, but my guess is that unless it captures commercial audiences more strongly, it'll get nominated for Best Picture but not win it.

> Dec 25 - Paycheck

The anticipation for this is pretty weak. I'm still intrigued, but why, I wonder, is this being released at this time? This would be a good March release, when a dry January and February have left moviegoers in the early stages of hunger for summer movies. On Christmas Day, The Return of the King is just going to trample over it without a backward glance.

> Dec 25 - Cheaper By the Dozen

Almost the same story here. Lots of comedies and children's fare in the multiplexes right now. I'm not sure who's going to be in the theater for this one. Doesn't mean it'll be bad, of course, but I'm guessing it was a poor marketing call.

> Dec 25 - Peter Pan

I wrote in my previous post that I'm greatly anticipating this one. I'm still greatly anticipating it. The more I read, the more I'm intrigued. I'm guessing there's something pretty special here. Whether it catches on with audiences or not, I don't know.

> Dec 26 - House of Sand and Fog

Kingsley's a frontrunner for Best Actor this year, and both actresses in this one have decent shots.

> Jan 9 - Big Fish

The Oscar momentum on this one is flagging. I don't think this one can be called very confidently until we see how it's received by commercial audiences.

> The Statement - limited, 12/12

The initial take on this one is soft, but I imagine this isn't the sort of movie it's easy to sell.

> In America - limited, 12/26

Slowly gaining steam and attention. Will it be enough to secure some Oscar nominations? I bet it depends on whether its acceleration can outpace Big Fish's deceleration. This movie has a fiercely devoted following behind it, but it's not a broad one. Yet.

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