> People seem to be very divided about movies this year.

No kidding. And is it just me, or are the "best" movies of this year generally uninteresting ones? I usually get all pumped for Oscar season, but bleh. Far From Heaven, About Schmidt, Antwone Fisher, Y tu Mama Tambien, The Pianist, The Quiet American, The Piano Teacher...I'm sure most of them are good movies, but not a one of those interests me at all. I want to see Chicago and The Hours, but that's only two for nine.

I fully realize that if I actually saw a few of those movies, I might very likely become excited about some of them, but usually I'm psyched to see some of the end-year Oscar movies beforehand. Is it just me, or is it a bad year for the art houses?

> I'd ditch Jackson from the "very likely" list and put Scorsese there. My prediction is "Gangs" will get nominated for a lot, but probably fail to win much. I'm pulling for Jonze to get a nod.

That's probably a good call on Gangs, but I think Jackson will slip in thanks to a shortage of strong "director's" movies. Maybe that's why I'm not as pumped for the array of Oscar contenders this year: I'm generally attracted to director's movies and less so to writer's movies. (Speaking in terms of *anticipating* a movie, not appreciating it afterward; great writing is something I very definitely appreciate.) The Two Towers and Gangs of New York are true director's movies, so I think Jackson and Scorsese will be recognized. If Spielberg were anybody other than Spielberg, he'd be recognized for Minority Report, which is more the work of its director than any of the other contenders.

That brings me to Spike Jonze. I haven't seen Adaptation, but is that truly an accomplishment of its director or its writers? All I hear about Adaptation is how brilliant the screenplay is. It's probably a lock to *win* Adapted Screenplay, and maybe that means a Best Director nomination is a lock, too, but, I dunno. The vibes I'm getting aren't leaning that way. I kind of think a Best Picture nomination is more likely, although this is exactly the opposite of how Being John Malkovich turned out, getting a Best Director nomination and no Best Picture nomination.

> What about screenwriting?

Tom Brady and Rob Schneider have a lock for their screenplay of "The Hot Chick."