> I'm thinking the following Best Picture list is likely:
>
> The Two Towers
> Far From Heaven
> Gangs of New York
>
> Plus two of:
>
> - About Schmidt
> - Adaptation
> - Chicago
> - Gangs of New York
> - The Hours
> - Minority Report
> - The Pianist

That sounds about right to me, except "Gangs" is there twice. I really can't come up with anything else for that list. I wouldn't put TTT as a sure thing though. "Far From Heaven" is my only real solid bet. People seem to be very divided about movies this year.

> If Minority Report had been released in December, I would think it a sure bet for a nomination, but the Academy has that short memory thing going.

I would love for MR to get nominated, but MR is also sci-fi in ADDITION to being a "summer" movie.

>
> Candidates I'm counting out:
>
> - Catch Me If You Can
> - Road To Perdition

No arguments here.

> For Best Director:
>
> - Peter Jackson, The Two Towers
> - Steven Spielberg, Minority Report
> - Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
>
> The remaining two will come from:
>
> - Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
> - Roman Polanski, The Pianist
> - Steven Daldry, The Hours
> - Spike Jonze, Adaptation
> - Alexander Payne, About Schmidt

I'd ditch Jackson from the "very likely" list and put Scorsese there. My prediction is "Gangs" will get nominated for a lot, but probably fail to win much. I'm pulling for Jonze to get a nod.

> I won't speculate as thoroughly on the acting awards, but figure, for the Best Actor/Actress categories:
>
> - Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
> - Michael Caine, The Quiet American
> - Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
> - Nicole Kidman, The Hours
>
> And maybe:
>
> - Daniel Day Lewis, Gangs of New York
> - Adrien Brody, The Pianist
> - Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
> - Salma Hayek, Frida
> - Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander
> - Meryl Streep, The Hours

I'd be very surprised if Hayek didn't get a nomination. Ditto for Cage. Streep has a good shot, too, because she also gives a good (and very memorable) performance in "Adaptation" that I think will help her bid for "The Hours." I also think that if an early movie is going to get recognition, it will be "Changing Lanes." Wouldn't be *too* surprised to see Samuel L. Jackson get a nomination (though whether it'd be for Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor I can't say).

What about screenwriting? My thoughts run:

Adapted:
- "Adaptation" by Charlie Kaufmann (two notes: his "brother" may be nominated as well, and this may be under "Original Screenplay." I am positive it will get a nomination though).
- "The Hours"

Original:
- "Gangs of New York"
- "Far From Heaven"

Maybes:
- "Punch Drunk Love" (original)
- Two Towers (adapted, obviously).
- "About Schmidt" (adapted)
- "About A Boy" (adapted; long shot but it would be kind of nice)

Other thoughts about the writing categories?