> And although I'm not picking him now, as I originally did (because I'm a coward), let me say here for the record: I would not be the teensiest bit surprised if Richard Farnsworth is the night's big upset.

Ditto. I don't really think Denzel Washington has much of a chance, even if he should, but I could be wrong.

I'm going to post my guesses, which I compiled weeks ago but revised significantly yesterday, in a moment. It pains me, as it does you, that I'm not putting down Farnsworth and Hilary Swank for Best Actor and Actress. And oddly enough, I was really thinking Spike Jonze would win Best Director for a while, which would be extremely interesting given that the movie he directed was not nominated for Best Picture. But that guess is out for me at this stage, too. I hate making safe and obvious guesses, but I'd also rather than be the right guesses. Looking over your list and Roger Ebert's list (published over the weekend), it looks like our guesses are not that different from each other's. Either it isn't a hard year after all, or we're all wrong.

Best Supporting Actress continues to be the toughest category to pick. This one doesn't ever seem to play by the rules. You and Ebert both guessed Jolie, my second choice, but I'm sticking with Keener -- for now. I may well chicken out and revise that guess before Sunday.