> Still, had money been on the line, I probably would have gone with Cheadle and Moreno. Next year, no more risky guesses.

That was basically the reason I dumped "Ray" out of my Best Picture line-up in favor of Hotel Rwanda. I figured it was the least likely of the six possibilities, but I wondered if a "City of God"-like surprise was going to happen.

> Most surprising nom: Mike Leigh in Director. Vera Drake didn't get a Picture nod, Leigh wasn't nominated by the DGA ... how the heck did he sneak in here?

Good question. I think Mike Leigh is pretty respected, especially with actors who revere his wild directing process that puts a whole lot of creative control into the actors' hands -- much like Robert Altman does, only more extremely.

So here's the next question. The guild nominations seem to be slightly ahead of the curve this year. On average, the PGA nominees match 3/5 of the Best Picture nominees, while the DGA nominees match 4/5. Weird that the DGA would be a more reliable Best Picture predictor, since it crosses over categories, but that's how it is.

This year, the PGA nominees matched 4/5 of the Best Picture nominees, and the DGA nominees matched them 5/5 (paradoxically predicting the Best Director category less reliably, though no less reliably than it usually does).

The question, therefore, is, are the PGA and DGA awards more likely than usual to predict the Oscar outcome? The PGA award already went to the Aviator. If the DGA goes to Scorsese, my guess is that locks up the Picture and Director Oscars for sure.

Some people are predicting Eastwood's modestly surprising Best Actor nod, combined with Jamie Foxx's double nomination, opens the door for a shifting of awards. If Foxx's double nomination siphons some votes away from his performance in Ray, the door is open for Eastwood to score that award instead, whom people will vote for in lieu of Best Director, so that THAT award can go to Scorsese at long last.

Will it pan out that way? Possibly, but my current prediction is that Foxx and Scorsese will win, and Eastwood will miss out entirely. The expansion of Million Dollar Baby may clarify the field somewhat: if it does unexpectedly well or unexpectedly poorly, that'll affect how comfortable those reliant upon the film industry will be with the film.