> Sorry, I'm going to have to go with Khalil on that one, even with him losing the last couple of weeks, and even without quite the production numbers of Bay. This guy plays AMAZING defense. I think the number of runs he'd save per game would more than make up for what he'd be lacking in driving in.
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> For the record, possible bias, as I'm a SD fan. I'm *trying* to be objective, though. At the very least, I wouldn't say it was no contest.

Well, first, we'll look at offense, where impact is far greater.

Greene put up ROY-caliber numbers, going .273/.349/.446 in 554 plate appearances. A .795 OPS is impressive, adjusted OPS (1.6*OBP + SLG) of 1.004. 15 HR and 65 RBI (I despise RBI as a measure of value, but others see worth in it, so I suppose I need to cite it). He did play good defense at SS, 5th best in the NL according to Bill James' Win Shares.

Bay put up some pretty nice numbers, too: .284/.359/.554 in only 468 plate appearances. OPS of .913, adjusted OPS of 1.128. 26 HR and 82 RBI. Bay, according to Win Shares, is an average defensive outfielder, nothing to write home about.

The problem comes in assessing defense. People, myself include, tend to overvalue good defense and undervalue average defense, especially at a defensively important position (in the former case) and a much less defensively important position (in the latter). Greene played very good defense at SS, but he wasn't God. He wasn't even the best in the National League (Jack Wilson was, by far). By most metrics I look at, Greene is around the 5th or 6th best defensive SS in the NL. Nothing to sneeze at, to be sure, but he'd have to be pretty good to make up for the huge offensive gulf between he and Bay, especially considering Bay put up those numbers in 100 less plate appearances. Bay, by all measures, is an average leftfielder. Where Greene probably "wins" is that he had more Sportscenter highlights than Bay did (the problem with the public's perception of defense can pretty much be traced to such "highlight" shows).

In any event, I don't mean to make it seem as though Greene is an asinine choice. Greene is a very defensible candidate, and I'd have no serious problems with him winning the award. I just think that numbers bear out that Bay was the better rookie.

TOM