> Still, despite the possibility of some wild things happening (like Pedro Almodovar's Best Director nomination last year -- which, I might add, was seemingly based much more on merit than buzz), the nominations are usually going to be selections from a closed pool. Sometimes this pool is absolute: AMPAS has released short lists for the documentary, animation, and visual effects categories. Other times, it's still usually 90%+ closed. Can you honestly imagine the five Best Picture nominees coming from a list other than the AFI Top Ten of the Year, minus The Human Stain, and plus Cold Mountain and Big Fish? Statistically, picking five out of eleven is a lot less of a crapshoot than picking one out of five, especially since three of the eleven are more or less assured. The acting categories seem to be even more closed; I can't come up with 11 reasonable possibilities for either Best Actor or Best Actress.

True. I rarely see more than three or four movies a year (and usually these are kids animated ones), yet with a little reading, I can usually place in the top half of the pack.

Besides, it's fun.

te "looks like Peter Pan, Elf, and Cold Mountain this holiday" ach