I'm not going to make full nomination predictions yet, as I'm still going back and forth for the most part. This is the hardest year to predict in some time, simply because there are more posible contenders in the big categories than usual. Given what a crummy movie year it was for 11 months, December piled on the good movies. (And Sam: I've seen some of those movies you're not eager to see, and I recommend them. "Far From Heaven" is my favorite film of the year so far, edging out "Gangs of New York", though I still have a number of contenders left to see.)

I will point out one Picture possibility that you've overlooked: "My Big Fat Greek Wedding". It's easy to dismiss it as being "too small" or "too light" or whatever, but it perfectly fits the profile of what I refer to as the "Ghost" slot: hugely popular moneymaker, a surprise pop-culture phenomenon, not a traditionally heavy Best Picture sort of drama. As examples, think "The Full Monty", "Fatal Attraction", "The Sixth Sense", and the titular "Ghost". Plus, it has a Tom Hanks connection, which never hurts. As far as MBFGW goes, I currently have it penciled into my list of 5 for Best Picture nods, though I'm still not sure which more deserving movie will get shafted by it.

It's pretty much guaranteed an Original Screenplay nod, and even though it's a very strong year for Best Actress contenders, I'm currently predicting an upset nom for Nia Vardalos. There are other less likely nods possible, such as Lainie Kazan in Supporting, but Picture/Actress/Screenplay are the 3 to watch.

Only winners that I'd be willing to bet on at this point, from biggest lock downward:

Actress will be Julianne Moore for "Far From Heaven". Total lock; bet the farm on it.
Director will be Martin Scorsese for "Gangs of New York".
Actor will be Daniel Day-Lewis for "Gangs of New York".

-- Trip