In my annual nomination predictions for the Big 6 (Pic, Director, the 4 actings), I got 23 out of 30. Should have done a little better but I deliberately went out on a few limbs instead of sticking with the buzz I was hearing -- e.g. I picked Audrey Tautou over Renee Zellweger.

The Shipping News was never a big contender. While it's true that Miramax can get anything into the Picture nominees (exhibit A: Chocolat), this year they had something else that was better and more respected to fill its annual slot: In the Bedroom.

I was very happy that Moulin Rouge, my favorite film of the past several years, made it into Picture. I was thoroughly surprised and disappointed that they didn't nominate Luhrmann, for the same reason Sam gives. On the flip side, I was thrilled that they didn't nominate that pointless piece of garbage "Mulholland Drive" for picture, and upset that Lynch was nominated for director anyway.

Another oddity is that there were only three nominees for Visual Effects. There were tons of films that could have fleshed it out to five -- Harry Potter and Moulin Rouge being two very obvious choices -- and I can't see why they limited it to three.

Three of the four acting Oscars can go ahead and be engraved: Russell Crowe, Sissy Spacek, and Jennifer Connelly. It's not clear yet who'll get Supporting Actor; I'd guess either Broadbent (partly due to his portraying someone wildly different in Moulin Rouge) or McKellen (partly due to his being passed over as Best Actor in favor of Roberto Benigni a few years ago).

Picture/Director are a dogfight between A Beautiful Mind and Lord of the Rings. While ABM is certainly very typical Oscar material (also a very good movie, let me hasten to add), never bet against the big showy epic (Gladiator, Titanic, etc.). LotR also has the inside track, in my view, for this reason: whenever I personally like four of the nominees but not the fifth, the fifth inevitably wins. This was the case with Gladiator, Braveheart, Forrest Gump, and on and on. My personal preference order for the nominees would be 1) Moulin Rouge, 2) A Beautiful Mind, 3) In the Bedroom, 4) Gosford Park, and way back, 5) Lord of the Rings. I know that's a very minority opinion around here, but I'm in the camp that found it overlong, repetitive, and thoroughly anticlimactic.

My second-favorite film of the year was Amelie, and I was very happy to see it get five noms, though I would have liked to see it in Picture, Director, and Actress, all of which I firmly believe it deserved. The nomination for Sound has a certain irony to it, since Amelie never speaks. :-)

The biggest lock of the year is that Memento will win Original Screenplay. Bet the farm on it.

I'm already apprehensive about the ceremonies -- not only Gil Cates directing (OK, he did better the other year, but generally he stinks), but Whoopi hosting (the worst host in recent years), and we'll have to hear the usual drek songs from Randy Newman and Diane Warren. I swear, I think they just randomly reach into their Bag-O-Ballads whenever a producer asks them for a song for their film.

So, we'll see. I think it's going to be a much easier year to predict the winners than usual. Right now, I think we're going to see something similar to last year, where Gladiator won 5 and Traffic and Crouching Tiger both won 4. I'm expecting LotR, A Beautiful Mind, and Moulin to divide up the awards pretty evenly, unless LotR goes on a tear and wins the technicals that Moulin deserves, such as Art Direction. But we'll discuss this more later. :-)

-- Trip