I did well this year in nomination predicting, but not as well as I'd hoped. I got 25 out of the 30 possible nominations in Picture, Director, and the 4 acting categories.

Ten thoughts about the Oscars:

(1) Miramax must be stopped. That's just all there is to it. It was bad enough when they got that fluffy little "Shakespeare in Love" to upset "Saving Private Ryan" for Best Picture. But now they've gotten "Chocolat" a nomination for Best Picture! That is one of the worst nominations I've ever seen. Not because it's a bad movie -- it's a perfectably serviceable one -- but because it's just not Best Picture caliber. To me, it's as if "Notting Hill" had been up for the award. If it weren't for the fact that the 800-pound gorilla Miramax was pushing it, there would be no accounting for this nomination. The saddest thing, of course, is that it probably cost "Almost Famous" the nomination it deserved.

(2) All the pundits keep saying "Gladiator" is the favorite. Well, I hope not. My guess is that between now and Oscar day, Hollywood will wake up and say, ok, we did what was expected and nominated the thing, but now we can actually give the award to a good movie. I'm guessing that "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" will become the favorite to win.

(3) Julia Roberts is the biggest lock to win in years. Anyone who doesn't pick Julia Roberts will lose their Oscar pool.

(4) The music categories continue to reveal two universal truths: you can't have a year without a John Williams score being nominated, and alas, you can't have a year without some awful Randy Newman song being nominated either. These truths seem to be as solid as the law that says that Grammy voters will always find a way to give Sting *something*, even in a year when no one realizes he made any music.

(5) As someone else mentioned, nominating "O Brother Where Art Thou" for Adapted Screenplay is the silliest nomination since Kenneth Branagh was nominated for Adapted Screenplay for "Hamlet" despite not changing a single word.

(6) "Gladiator" really wasn't a good movie. I know I said that before, but it bears repeating.

(7) Joan Allen is one of my absolute favorite performers, and has always been high on my list of "This person has *got* to win an Oscar someday". (Morgan Freeman tops that list. Someone explain to me how Morgan Freeman can't have at *least* one Oscar by now.) Anyway, this isn't her year despite being wonderful in "The Contender", but it is great to see her recognized.

(8) It's entirely possibly that we see some real Oscar history being made. Tom Hanks is a real possibility to be the first person to take three Best Actor awards (one of Nicholson's three was a Supporting). And, of course, we may well see our first foreign-language Best Picture winner.

(9) Steve Martin will make everyone forget about Billy Crystal as the host. Crystal's shtick was starting to get old, and Martin will be wonderful.

(10) Gil Cates is back to produce the Oscars this year. Tremble and despair.

-- Trip