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Re: You know, I should've expected it to end up like this.
Posted By: Gil, on host 76.86.128.82
Date: Saturday, March 15, 2008, at 13:47:37
In Reply To: Re: You know, I should've expected it to end up like this. posted by Alexfrog on Saturday, March 15, 2008, at 04:34:12:

> Also:
>
> You lost the first guy first, I lost the second first, and then you lost the third! I've never seen that before!

Heh, I was actually counting on you not changing around your elements too much. The problem with having two strong attackers instead of one is that it's more costly to change your lead elemental attack as you have to switch two people instead of one, so I was fairly certain that you'd stick to attacking Enkidu first. That and the whole two HP upgrades, plus you tend to stick with the "same" elemental defense in finals matches. Unfortunately, both of your lead attackers struck first, and as a result I couldn't quite get one of them knocked out before I lost Enkidu, which would've given me a good boost going into the second attack.

Where I went wrong, oddly enough was the second round of attacks. I wasn't sure if you'd try moving your strengths around a bit, knowing that I was currently set to attack Bernadette first, but I figured that even if you didn't you'd at least put your HP bonuses on her and Crest. I should've just focused on taking Crest out second, but I figured if I attacked Maytag second I'd at least be able to capitalize on a slight statistical advantage there and build up enough of a lead going into the final round to win anyway. Between not gaining any ground in the first round though and having to go through that extra 10 HP in the second, I couldn't quite erase enough of that HP lead before the final round started.

Of course, it's telling that I had to put together a near-perfect elemental strategy to have a chance at winning. The real problem began back in Elimination Round #2. I had a higher ranking at that point, but Petronator threw the first monkey wrench into the plans. If my strategy (and perhaps, any strategy with Ring Mail defense) has a fatal flaw, it's that a sufficiently difficult opponent, or at least the appearance of one, in the first couple of Elimination Rounds ends up with me spending more than I'd like on temporary enhancements to keep from getting knocked out early by a kamikaze attack (see Elimination Round #1 in Game #45).

Of course, such an opponent can give Chain Mail defense users problems as well, but because they usually have a much higher HP at that point, they can usually handle those opponents a little better. Of course they'd normally have higher medical costs, while Ring Mail users would have higher temporary enhancement costs eventually, but the general idea is that you'd start paying those extra costs later instead of sooner, and because medical costs translate into lower points, ideally a Ring Mail user would have a better ranking and, in theory, would have easier opponents, resulting in better performance and a statistical edge by the endgame.

Unfortunately, Petronator put up enough of a fight that I lost both ranking and gold on extra temp. enhancements, which put me up against fisher and rathorne who both called my elemental strategy REALLY well... to be honest, it took some luck just to get through that and a little predictability on droopy's part to get out of the semis.

In all, I still think 5/4/4 with Ring Mail is a solid strategy and could still beat a high-HP Chain Mail user, but perhaps the dynamics of the early eliminations are too risky to be effective. Well, I guess we'll just have to see what happens next month... as always, your skills are impeccable. Hope to face you again soon...

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