February 20, 2001

RinkChat, NH - Dr. Veronica Cronch, a Ph.D. in statistical analysis and predictive awards theory, has been studying the RinkAwards for over a month now and is consequently the world's leading authority on the RinkAwards. I had a chance to talk with Dr. Cronch and ask her to share with me her predictions for the RinkAwards nominations, to be announced Tuesday.

Samuel Stoddard: Thank you for being here, Dr. Veronica Cronch.

Dr. Veronica Cronch: It's my pleasure.

SS: Let's start with the big one. What do you see earning nominations in the Best Archive category?

VC: There are a few that seem like sure bets, but there are also a lot of dark horses that have a shot. Both parts of "The Sting" are very popular; the only question there is, will it split its own vote? I think "The Sting, Part II," at least, has enough enduring popularity to secure a nomination. "Stupid Day 2000" is a likely contender, although the failure to recapture the magic in the RinkChat celebration of Stupid Day 2001 may dampen enthusiasm for it. "The Great Ginger Ale Tragedy" also looks promising, but it's one of the very first archives, which happened before a lot of the voters ever came to RinkChat. "Group Therapy" has potential, though the buzz about that has died down in the past few months. "Who Wants To Be a Millionaire?" was voted the most popular archive in the February 8, 2000, reader poll, but now that the game show's popularity has died down and one of the archive's stars is gone from RinkChat, it remains to be seen if that one has enough momentum to carry it through to a nomination. "A Flash In the Eye" is very popular, but it's possible voters may see it as too much of a one trick pony to deserve a Best Archive nomination. "Crazy Insane Play Supreme" is popular with voters and has an added advantage owing to the fact that so many voters were directly involved with it. Other contenders are "The Affair," "Dave Makes Dinner," "Bleeding Excessively," "Safari," "Split Stephen," and "The Flame War."

SS: That brings us to the categorized archive awards. Let's start with Best Anecdotal Archive. What are your predictions for that category?

VC: The anecdotal archives are very interesting, because, for the most part, they took place around the same period of time. Consequently, there is less bias for or against an older or newer archive. It remains to be seen if voters tend to favor newer archives, because they are fresher in their minds, or older ones, because they have gained a sort of legendary status. This category, I think, will be the most fairly judged. It comes down to a battle between "Bleeding Excessively" and "WHAMMO!" The former was very controversial, of course. Its detractors are vehement, but so are its fans, and with only nine archives eligible for five nomination slots, I think the fans will prevail. "Some Form of I.D." will probably get a nomination, and maybe "Death By Science." The fifth slot is anybody's guess.

SS: The Best Conversational Archive category is a little more competitive.

VC: It is, and voters have a little more fervor about their favorites. "The Great Ginger Ale Tragedy" is virtually assured of a nomination, and "A Flash In the Eye" and "Dave Makes Dinner" are also likely. It seems people like hearing about Dave doing things to himself.

SS: (laughs) Well, who doesn't?

VC: Exactly! (laughs) "The Affair" is another very likely candidate, because it is unique among the other archives. There are no others quite as personal as that one. For the fifth slot, I hope "Nuclear Monsters From the Sea" is recognized. It has a special, elusive sort of appeal to it that is much more subtle than most of the archives. But the nomination might go to "Songs And Getting Older," "Tired By So Much Late," or "Glop and Grace" instead.

SS: One of my dark horse favorites in that category is "Affairs of State." What do you think are its chances?

VC: That one is a good one, but I think it's a long shot. It never had a very high profile, and I'm not so sure enough voters shared the enthusiasm for weird quirks of geography to go with that. But you never know.

SS: The Best Improvised Episode Archive category is even more competitive. What do you think about that one?

VC: "Crazy Insane Play Supreme" is almost assured of a nomination. So many voters were involved with that one, and more like it. "Who Wants To Be a Millionaire?" should fare well here, too; the factors working against it for Best Archive won't be as strong in this less competitive category. "BatDarien vs. the Jokestah" should do well. "Safari" and "Split Stephen" have good chances. "The Case of the Mangled Wrap" has a long shot at a nomination, and "Pool Party," while not a hit with more cynical voters, could win enough of an audience to secure a nomination as well.

SS: How about Best Improvised Humor Archive?

VC: "Stupid Day 2000" is the one to beat. "Group Therapy" and "The Flame War" just might be able to do it. The remaining two nomination slots will probably go to "Mrs. Girlagong" and "Girly Stuff." I'm going to go out on a limb and say the now legendary "Dudes To Be Feared" won't make it. Although the "733t ahX0r" schtick was never done so well, before or after, it's done so much today that voters may be tired of it.

SS: The Best Prank Archive category is another one with only nine eligible entrants. Which five will make it?

VC: I don't think there's any question that both parts of "The Sting" will make it. The rest is anybody's guess. "Pet Names," "The Banning of Sam," and both parts of "The Revenge of Sam" are all classic pranks that are possibly too familiar today to be enduring in voter's minds -- although "The Revenge of Sam, Part II" does have the twist of the victim turning the tables and playing along with the joke, at the expense of everyone else present.

SS: That brings us to the last archive category. It's Best Self-Chat, which is the smallest. The oddity here is that "Self-Seance II" isn't eligible for it, because it wasn't really a self-chat but a collaborative effort between two people.

VC: Yes, so that means there are only four eligible archives, and, barring a tie, only two will be nominated. And what a tough category this is! I think Dave's "Self-Chat" will make it, if only by virtue of the fact that it was the first one and started the tradition. But no matter which way you look at it, it's a close race with no clear winners and no clear losers.

SS: Not even going to try to guess at that?

VC: Well, I don't really want to. (laughs) I suppose if you held me at gunpoint, I'd say "Self-Chat" and Darien's "Another Self-Chat."

SS: Is that your final answer?

VC: (laughs) Well, um, no..."Self-Seance" was pretty good. And so was "Self-Parking."

SS: (laughs) Ok, I'll be merciful and move on. How about Best Alternate Personality?

VC: Well, Stephen's Radebur is as close to a sure thing as you can get. Sam's Blood_Drops and Dave's DariusLongshore are good bets, as are Darien's BatDarien and Issachar's Jokestah. Dark horses in this category are extirpator's ExtiRobin, Sakura's Moonstar, Stephen's Stephen2_0, and Stephen's Good_Stephen.

SS: Not Bad_Stephen as well?

VC: Bad_Stephen is too much like Stephen's usual character. The role wasn't much of an acting job for him.

SS: How about Best Non-Speaking Appearance?

VC: The trick in this category is to find out what non-speaking appearances had the most impact on the archive. The classic non-speaking appearances are all from "Self-Chat": ladybluebird, Stratomagi, and minamoon. Wormwood, in "The Affair," was a good one. So was Brunnen-G, in "How the Grishny Stole RinkMas," thanks to the timing of her exit. You're not such a long shot for "The Banning of Sam," you know.

SS: That brings us to Best 733t Haxor.

VC: For all the archives represented in the eligible entrants, it becomes a battle between the two "Dudes To Be Feared" archives, with dark horses in "Mrs. Girlagong." None of the other archives have sustained haX0r lingo in it. This category will be more interesting when it comes time to decide the winner. Everybody will be splitting everybody else's votes.

SS: I'm going to skip some of the minor categories and go straight to Best Closing Line. This is another favorite category of mine. It seems like there are a number of great closing lines.

VC: There are. Fighting for nomination are Mousie, for "The Admin War of the Ages"; Morris, for "Bleeding Excessively," "Pizza Party," and "Safari"; Leen, for "Wreakers of Things"; Brunnen-G, for "Constellations," "A Flash In the Eye," and "Tired By So Much Late"; Dave, for "The Case of the Mangled Wrap," "Mischief In School," "Self-Chat"; Liface, for "Childhood Frolics"; Princessa, for "Group Therapy"; Faux_Pas, for "Moses: The Continuing Story"; Stephen, for "Self-Parking"; and Washu, for "WHAMMO!"

SS: That's a lot of possibilities. Can't narrow it down any more than that?

VC: Well...ok, how about this lineup: Morris, for "Safari"; Brunnen-G, for "Constellations" and "Tired By So Much Late"; Dave, for "The Case of the Mangled Wrap"; and Leen, for "Wreakers of Things."

SS: We proceed now to the five performance categories. Let's start with Best Male Comic Conversationalist.

VC: I don't know whether he'll carry on to a win or not, but Dave may likely dominate the nominations. He has four performances strong enough to secure a nomination: "Dave Makes Dinner," "A Flash In the Eye," "The Great Ginger Ale Tragedy," and "WHAMMO!" Filling in the holes in the nominations will be Darien, for "The Great Ginger Ale Tragedy" and possibly "Bleeding Excessively."

SS: No one else?

VC: The rest are long shots. It seems like Stephen would be in there, but for what archive? In "Nuclear Monsters From the Sea," he splits his vote with Issachar. "The Cat Outside the Window of Hate" is his next strongest conversational performance, but it's a fairly obscure work.

SS: How about Best Male Comic Improvisor?

VC: Here is where Stephen will get his recognition. A nomination for "The Sting, Part I" is almost a guarantee. He might also secure one for "Split Stephen," if the older, more classic archives don't overshadow it. Kelly had a very strong performance in "Stupid Day 2000," but the question is, will voters recognize him in the midst of an ensemble cast? Darien and Issachar have a chance with "BatDarien vs. the Jokestah," if they don't split each other's votes; Issachar might also do well with "Quest For Leen" or "Stream of Insanity Derby" or "Safari." For that matter, Faux_Pas might get a nomination for "Safari" also, but it's more likely he'd be recognized for that role in Best First Appearance In An Archive. Grishny and The_Scotsman are both dark horses for "How the Grishny Stole RinkMas."

SS: Now for Best Female Comic Conversationalist.

VC: This is a very close race. There are no clear nominees and certainly no clear winners. My guess is that flyingcats will get a nomination for "The Affair," and Brunnen-G will get one for "Nuclear Monsters From the Sea" and/or "A Flash In the Eye." The rest -- who knows? Brunnen-G, Ellmyruh, and Mousie might get nods for "WHAMMO!" Mousie might also get something for "Mrs. Girlagong." Leen and Ticia might make the cut for "Cute Cute Cute." The sentimental vote might be strong enough to give Grace a nomination for "Glop and Grace."

SS: How about Best Female Comic Improvisor?

VC: As with the male improvisor category, this is a little easier. Brunnen-G, for "The Sting, Part II" is the frontrunner. Others might be Mia, for "The Case of the Mangled Wrap"; Sakura, for "Bloody Mayhem At Sakura's House"; Ticia, for "Safari" and "Girly Stuff"; and Kiki, for "Girly Stuff." "RinkLympics," "Sororital Spat," and "Wreakers of Things" are possible long shots for their female stars, too.

SS: After a long interview, we come at last to the final category. The interesting thing about the Best First Appearance In An Archive category is that you'll only ever be eligible for it once, and to a large extent it's the luck of the draw whether your first archive is one that shows you off in a memorable light or not. What are your picks for this category?

VC: I think three of the nominees will be Dave, Faux_Pas, and flyingcats. The other two slots will be up for grabs by Leen, Liface, Genlanar, Aries21, extirpator, Issachar, and Grace. Princessa and Waythorn have outside chances, but neither are well known by the voters, so that will hurt their chances. I think it more likely that the nominations will go to people who started off with memorable performances but then sustained that level of involvement in RinkChat over time.

SS: Thank you for being with us, Dr. Cronch. I'll be speaking with you very soon, after the nominations are announced, and we can reflect on how accurate your predictions were and discuss what surprises may have happened.

VC: I look forward to it.